49ers: Contenders or pretenders??

Thank God this is a blog, because I'm about to be all over the map with my thoughts. I didn't exactly lay out a plan of how I wanted to talk about this, simply because it should reflect how I'm thinking. And right now, I'm going back and forth more than an 8-bit Pong game.
About 30 minutes ago, I was sold on my San Francisco 49ers. They're off to a 4-1 start. By my biased logic, three of those are quality wins...but...:

Win 1) 13-8 at Cincinnati. I think the Bengals are decent. Not good, not bad. But it was their home opener (granted it wasn't even sold out) and they have an underrated defense. Add to the mix that conditions weren't ideal and Andy Dalton isn't terrible and there were a couple things to like about that game. The Niners trailed for about three quarters and appeared inept on offense, not crossing midfield until the second half. Nothing new, right? What was new was that San Fran didn't let the game get away from them and, for the first time in seemingly a decade, snatched victory from the jaws of defeat with a couple late scores.
The defense was awesome. Dalton convincingly marched the Bengals down the field on Cincy's first drive. That was it. Cedric Benson, like about 26 running backs before him, didn't get to 100 yards rushing against the stingy Niner D. Alex Smith just did enough in the nick of time for the win.

Ohbytheway) Cincy needed a late score in Week 5 to beat a terrible Jacksonville Jaguars team, lost to the Cleveland Browns, eked out a win against Kyle Orton's Denver Broncos and beat a Buffalo Bills team who spend the first 55 minutes celebrating their win against the Patriots the week before. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for the quality of a team whose offseason highlight coming off a 4-12 season was that their starting quarterback was in trade-me-or-I-retire mode. Throw in the fact that two big-name players (Benson, Jerome Simpson) were battling legal issues the week of the 49ers game and they still almost won and, well...how crazy can I be about that win?

Overall- Definitely a bigger "we didn't lose" game than a "we won" game. But in the NFC West, a win is 14 percent closer to a playoff spot, so...


Win 2) 24-23 at Philadelphia. If you would have told me the day before it happened that the 49ers won a game against the Eagles in which they trailed 23-3 in the third quarter, I'd have told you it probably happened in like 1984. If you told me it happened in 2011, I'd ask you if we traded Alex Smith to Philly at halftime. Yet, it did happen, Alex Smith still played for the 49ers and he didn't spend time on the bench. The thing about this game was that Michael Vick passed for over 400 yards and the defense didn't really look bad at all. Did the Eagles gift-wrap this game? Yeah. Will I take it? Of course.
Again, the team never panicked. Down 20 in the third quarter, the offense put its nose to the grindstone and found a way to win. The defense locked down and lucked out when it had to. Sure, Philly's rookie kicker Alex Henery shanked two field goals, but the Eagles also had a chance to win on their last drive and Justin Smith stripped Jeremy Maclin. That's skill, not luck. Also, it's a lack of skill on Maclin's part, but I digress. Kinda.

Ohbytheway) Philadelphia didn't have to do anything fancy in the second half to win that game. They have too many weapons for any team (Maclin, Vick, DeSean Jackson, Brent Celek, LeSean McCoy, Jason Avant, to name SIX). If Andy Reid was anybody but Andy Reid, a 20-point second-half would be plenty, no matter how bad your overrated defense is. Yet it wasn't. San Francisco doesn't get a loss because they should have lost. Thank God.

Overall- While it's not a win to be proud of, it was definitely an effort to be proud of and it was something to build on. Philadelphia, while 1-4, is more talented than just about any 1-4 team ever. And any time you come back from 20 down to win, it's a testament to coaching and perseverance.


Win 3) 48-3 vs Tampa Bay. Jesus Christ. Where do you start with this game? Alex Smith looked like Joe Montana. First drive, touchdown in triple coverage. Not a lucky throw, either... a legitimate strike to Delanie Walker, and from 26 yards out to boot. After a Frank Gore fumble near the goal line, it was smooth sailing. Sure, the offense stalled (once), but after Carlos Rogers' (aka the offseason pickup of the year) pick-six early in the second, Andy Lee could pretty much call it a day. Pure domination rushing the ball, throwing the ball, stopping the run and stopping the pass. You win those four facets as convincingly as the 49ers did and 48-3 probably isn't such a shock. But still...shocking.

Ohbytheway) Tampa was coming off a short week and they looked mediocre at best against the winless Indianapolis Colts. Sure, they're 3-2, but their win against Atlanta looks bad because Atlanta is bad, they should have lost to Minnesota, they couldn't beat the Lions in their home opener and it really wasn't as close as the score indicated. If Tampa doesn't have 7-9 written all over them, I don't know who does.


I'm not crazy about their first two games, either. I'm convinced they would have lost to Seattle in Week 1 at home had Ted Ginn Jr. not split the Seahawks' special teams unit twice like a bomb was strapped to his chest.

If anything, their Week 2 loss was one of their best-played games this year...at least for the first three and a half quarters. The secondary stopped and nearly murdered Tony Romo and the offense withstood constant pressure from the Dallas pass rush. To think San Francisco is a Harbaugh "taking the points off the board to keep the ball and kill more clock" decision away from 5-0 is hard to believe.

This all brings me back to 30 minutes ago, which is now closer to an hour and 30 minutes ago. I felt great. Why shouldn't I? San Fran's record is 4-1 with two tough road wins and a dismantling of a supposed playoff contender. But is their resume as good as it appears?

Unfortunately, Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal and the rest of America, apparently, think so. During their recent podcast, I thought it was a red flag when Cousin Sal said the 49ers were good enough to not just win one playoff game, but two. In his hypothetical scenario, San Fran hosts a 9-7 Falcons team in round one, then moves on to defeat a second opponent (obviously, it'd have to be New Orleans or Green Bay) to reach the NFC Championship Game. Um, excuse me?
If that wasn't enough, later in the podcast, Simmons is ready to jump all over the 49ers at 30-1 odds to WIN THE SUPER BOWL. By comparison, the New York Jets, who are in the midst of a three-game slide, but reached the AFC Championship game two years running, are also 30-1. Those aforementioned Eagles? The self-proclaimed Dream Team? The team who, before the start of the season, experts proclaimed would be disappointed with anything less than a Super Bowl title? 40-1.
If you thought the San Francisco 49ers, who haven't had a winning season since 2002, would, according to Vegas, have a better chance at a Super Bowl Championship than the Philadelphia Eagles, who have some of the best talent ever assembled by a single NFL football team, by Week 6, well, kudos.

Other ESPN talking heads have gushed about the 49ers performance through five games. Best defense in the league has been thrown around. And while it's good, it hasn't exactly been tested...

...which brings us to the 5-0 Detroit Lions.

Like the 49ers, Detroit has struggled throughout the last decade, enduring an 0-16 campaign along the way. Unlike the 49ers, the Lions came into 2011 with some hype. Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Ndamukong Suh, among others, had sleeper seekers keeping one eye open. This team was on the cusp coming into the season.

Well, by this time, it's safe to say Detroit is off the cusp and in a good way. Season-opening road win at Tampa Bay. Destruction of the reigning AFC West Champion Kansas City Chiefs. Gritty come-from-behind wins on the road at Minnesota and at Dallas. All that followed up by a workmanlike Monday Night Football victory over division rival Chicago. Not the best lineup, but not exactly the bottom three NFC West teams either.

Anytime your team has a wide receiver nicknamed "Megatron," consider yourself a contender. The emergence of Matthew Stafford was only overdue because of his porous, but now improved offensive line. Jahvid Best made the Chicago Bears D look like the Washington State Cougars D (CIRCA ANY YEAR BEFORE THIS ONE!!! GO COUGS!!!). Brandon Pettigrew is the NFL's best-kept secret. It's a test unlike anything Patrick Willis, Carlos Rogers and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has seen in 2011.

Are the 49ers ready? The answer is yes. They're hungry and eager for the challenge. But the ultimate question is: Are they for real enough to compete with a legitimately dangerous Lions team? We'll find out in about five days.

All I know is that if the San Francisco 49ers move to 5-1 on Sunday, Cousin Sal and Bill Simmons might actually be onto something. The NFC West would be all but secured. A first-round bye wouldn't even be out of the question. And my hopes would officially be sky high.

I don't know if I'm ready for it, but as long as the Niners are, I think be fine. I just hope I feel the same way 30 minutes from now.