Week 6 NFL Picks

(Subject to change...I haven't run them by Brandon yet)

Last week, I thought about my picks a bit, trying to figure out a few things beyond the actual game (Al Davis' death, Philly publicly revoking "Dream Team" status, Seattle not having won on the road since 1994) that might give me an edge over the rest of America. Like the four weeks that preceded them, however, my Week 5 picks were once again average (Week 1: 8/16, average 8, Week 2: 9/16, average 8, Week 3: 9/16, average 8, Week 4: 9/16, average 9, Week 5: 7/13, average 7).
The one thing I noticed about those picks was that I took nearly every favorite. Seriously. After my first draft, I think I picked two teams getting points. Knowing that wouldn't happen, I adjusted a few games and, obviously, broke about even.
This week, we're riding the underdogs. It's pretty clear there are three or four elite NFL teams, three or four awful NFL teams and about 25 that could beat any of the others under the right circumstances (see the Tennessee-Pittsburgh-Baltimore round robin). I touched on it on the blog last night (OK, I spent about two hours on it). San Francisco is good, but how much better are they than Cincinnati? Five points? How about Washington? The Giants? The list goes on. They could just as easily have defeated Dallas in Week 2. Or lost to Cincy and Philly in Weeks 3 and 4. The perfect formula initiated their blowout of Tampa Bay last week (short week for Tampa, big home game against New Orleans in Week 6, San Francisco coming off an emotional comeback against a Super Bowl favorite. You get the idea.


For the first time this season, I'm posting my NFL picks. You can bet your bottom dollar I'll either miss or hit four games. Make or break week and you'll see why:

(Blatantly copying Bill Simmons, home team in caps)


Carolina (+4.5) vs ATLANTA


Part of me is nervous picking against the Falcons at home, but in two Georgia Dome games this season, they eked by a possibly-terrible Tampa Bay team and easily blew a 14-point lead to the defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers.
The second of those games is the most telling. Atlanta-Green Bay met in the second round of last season's playoffs. Roddy White recently said that the Falcons were a better team than the Packers last year. Well, nothing really changed. The cheeseheads even spotted Atlanta 14 points and the Falcons responded by scoring zero after the first quarter. Not exactly inspiring. Better teams don't lose games like that. Hell, pretty good teams don't lose games that important in that fashion unless the Packers are THAT transcendent, which, I don't quite think they are.
Carolina, meanwhile, goes toe-to-toe week in and week out no matter who stands on the opposing sideline. They've lost by seven (Arizona), seven (Green Bay), five (Chicago) and three (New Orleans). And I'm supposed to be scared of the Falcons. No.

Buffalo (+3.5) vs NY GIANTS


Can we say Buffalo is good yet? Can we? Because they are. Sorry they only have one win against the Patriots and haven't beaten Green Bay, but you can't really pin that on the Bills. Blame the schedule-makers.

Meanwhile, the Giants are coming off an awful home loss to the pathetic Seattle Seahawks. Hell, they weren't even getting the job done against Tarvaris Jackson's Seahawks, much less Charlie Whitehurst's Seahawks. Obviously, they're not that bad, but they're not that good either. Beating St. Louis by 12 and Arizona by three is supposed to impress me? Knocking off a reeling Eagles team is your signature win? Sorry, I'm not buying you.


Indianapolis vs CINCINNATI (-6.5)



The Colts are definitely not getting a win before whenever they play Jacksonville at home. Forget about it. So now the question isn't if the Bengals will win, but by how much? Well, my guess is a lot. Like, around 14. Something in the realm of 24-10. Cincy's defense is third in the NFL against the pass (best of luck, Curtis Painter and the NFL's 25th-ranked passing offense) and seventh against the run (best of luck, three guys who all suck about the same and are collectively 30th in the NFL in rushing offense).
The Bengals don't wow you offensively (24th passing, 18th rushing), but fortunately, the Colts are about as bad defensively (19th vs the pass, 31st vs the run) as they are offensively. Also, the game is in Cincinnati, where the Bengals nearly beat the 49ers and did beat the Bills. Indy's best chance to cover might be a forfeit.


San Francisco vs DETROIT (-4.5)


See two blogs ago. I think San Fran can and will go toe-to-toe with the undefeated Lions. And I hope I'm dead wrong on this pick. But I just can't go all in with the Niners quite yet. Gimme a signature win against a talented team that's playing at their peak right now.
I like San Francisco's revamped secondary, but Megatron is a freak. Without a doubt the best receiver in the game. Three Cowboys couldn't stop him in the end zone two weeks ago and I'm not quite sure if Carlos Rogers has it in him yet.
The one advantage the 49ers might have is that Jahvid Best, despite his big game against the Bears, isn't really a threat against the game's best run defense (not by stats, but trust me on that). That might allow San Fran to drop back in coverage a bit. But with the weapons Matthew Stafford has (Brandon Pettigrew is really good, by the way), it's a tall task for the Niners to go on the road again and beat arguably the league's hottest team.


St. Louis vs GREEN BAY (-14.5)


Pretty easy week for the promotions department at Lambeau Field to plan out. Buy a front-row ticket anywhere in the stadium, get a Packers player to leap into you, FREE!!!


Philadelphia (+0.5) vs WASHINGTON


Sorry, Ryan. It's last-chance weekend for the Eagles to turn it around, not just for my betting purposes, but for their swiftly-fading playoff hopes. I know the Redskins have had two weeks to prepare, but they didn't do anything over that time to upgrade at quarterback from Rex Grossman to Not Rex Grossman. Washington's defense is good enough to create problems for Michael Vick and Co. and Roy Helu could very well run all over the Eagles front seven, eight, nine, twelve, sixteen, whatever they want to throw in the box. The more I write, the more I want to abandon this pick, so I'm gonna stop.


Jacksonville vs PITTSBURGH (-12.5)


If you don't believe me, go back a month to when the Jaguars went to New York to face the Jets. You should have gone into that game thinking "Jacksonville won't get to 10, the Jets will get to more than 20, ready, break!" Final score: 32-3 Jets.
This is like that game, except if the Jets were better. You think the Jags are getting to 10 points? Yeah right. You think Pittsburgh is getting to at least 23? Well, I mean by the end of the game, but if you're thinking second quarter, well, yeah, they'll do that too. This is the stone cold lock of the year. You know, besides the Jacksonville-Jets game.


Cleveland (+5.5) vs OAKLAND


All right, children, open your textbooks to page 1. We're going to discuss letdown games today.

Coming off possibly their most emotional win in team history, the Raiders get a Browns team that's had two weeks to prepare for them. Also, I'm not so sure the Browns are that bad (though their schedule is screaming at me that I'm wrong). Meanwhile, the Raiders have divison-rival Kansas City on deck and haven't won back-to-back games this season. If Oakland can keep the memory of Al Davis going two weeks running, they should win this game. But I also don't think they're six points better than the Browns.


Houston vs BALTIMORE (-7.5)


I understand the Texans losing to the Raiders last week. They didn't have Andre Johnson, lost Mario Williams and Oakland just had to win that game. Makes sense.
That said, I also understand the Texans losing to Baltimore this week. They don't have Andre Johnson or Mario Williams, the Ravens are better, at home and are coming off a bye week.
Houston's rankings across the board are good, but that'll happen when you take on Indianapolis and Miami your first two weeks.
As far as the Ravens are concerned, they're impressive. Borderline elite. Whatever happened against Tennessee was probably the result of destroying Pittsburgh the week prior, but I'm not 100 percent sure yet. If they whip a very beatable Houston team like I think they will, they may be in line for a promotion to elite status.


Dallas (+7.5) vs NEW ENGLAND


I'm all about these bye week teams not named the Rams. I hate the Cowboys, but you think they could come up with a gameplan somewhere along the lines of "Let's throw the ball as much as New England and hope we get the ball last" in two weeks. If anything, New England is coming off a big win over their rivals, the Jets, and Dallas can swoop in and make a game of it. On an unrelated note, I'm really happy I have Tom Brady as a fantasy quarterback this week.


New Orleans vs TAMPA BAY (+4.5)


The perfect way for the Buccaneers to erase the memory of a 45-point loss would be to climb back in the division hunt (albeit temporarily) with a win at home against the Saints. New Orleans hasn't wowed me yet. I'm not even throwing them into the NFL's elite pantheon. Their only decent win is a 17-point beating of the Bears at home in Week 2. Other than that, they lost to the Packers, beat Houston by seven, Jacksonville by 13 and Carolina by three. BFD. This game means much more to the Bucs than it does the Saints and it'll show on Sunday.


Minnesota (+3.5) vs CHICAGO


The Vikings are on the rebound. The Bears are on the debound. Minnesota could easily be 4-1 if they could hold onto 20-point leads and beat the Kansas City Chiefs. Meanwhile, everybody thought the Bears were going to be a player in the NFC North after throttling Atlanta, except now, the Falcons are bad and Chicago hasn't been within single-digits of the Packers, Saints and Lions. Sure, that's a murderer's row of sorts, but only against Detroit was Chicago really threatening. Oh, and the Bears only knocked off Carolina by five at home.
One more thing: If I set the over/under for Jared Allen sacks of Jay Cutler at 3.5, I'd take the under, but only because Cutler's going to be in a hospital bed before halftime.


Miami vs NY JETS (-7.5)


It's too bad the Dolphins and Colts didn't play each other in Week 1 so one team could officially be crowned "Andrew Luck Sweepstakes Champions." Instead, those teams, especially with Chad Henne out, are going to try to out-tank each other down the stretch.
The Jets are coming off three-straight losses and have to have a win to get back into the AFC East hunt. Pretty simple equation here.