Week 7 Picks

I didn't do too bad with my debut picks column. To be fair, I gave myself five weeks to analyze the NFL so I didn't come out here on the first week and hit five of 16 games.
Actually, I've been solid this season. On ESPN, I have yet to (knock on wood) be below average for a single week of all entries.
I am ashamed, however, of last week's Stone Cold Lock of the Week.

Don't get me wrong, it looked great when Pittsburgh stormed out to a 17-0 lead before halftime. All they had to do by that point was not get outscored by a terrible Jaguars team at home by more than five points.
Well, they did. You know why? Not because Jacksonville is scrappy or semi-talented, but because Pittsburgh's run of success is all but over. A playoff team this year? Maybe. But they don't have a shot at the AFC North. That distinction goes to this week's Stone Cold Lock of the Week.

Home Team in Caps

Atlanta vs DETROIT (-3.5)

For some reason, everyone is jumping on the Atlanta bandwagon this week. Upset special is being thrown around more than the football in the Lions' offense. Maybe it's because the Falcons covered against the Panthers while Detroit fell at home to my 49ers.
Well, the Falcons' only win away from Georgia this season was a squeaker over the Seattle Seahawks. Atlanta's pass defense is ranked 27th of 32 teams and if the Lions are good, they'll respond in a big way after their first loss in nearly a year. I think Detroit is still legit.

Chicago vs TAMPA BAY (+0.5)

I haven't figured out why the Bears are favored this week. It could be a letdown game for the Bucs, I guess. Sure, Chicago just walloped the Minnesota Vikings, but that's because they're the Minnesota Vikings.
Tampa's 4-2 and while their wins aren't that impressive, they're wins (yes, you come here for that kind of insight). They're just as well off, if not better with Earnest Graham than LeGarrett Blount (5.5 to 4.3 yards per carry) and are tied for the NFC South lead. They need games like this and they know it. And they'll get it because, especially at home, they're better than Da Bears.

Seattle (+3.5) vs CLEVELAND

I don't even really want to talk about this game. It's going to be the worst game of the week and that's saying something with some of the other clunkers on the docket (especially the next one). I'm completely hoping (pick-wise, not real-life wise because I want Gabe to buy all-expenses paid to Qwest next season) that the 'Hawks play like they did against the Giants. You know, where Tarvaris Jackson goes out and Charlie Whitehurst comes in. Yeah, that's the one.
As far as the Browns go, well, I have to be honest. I've seen them run about three plays this season and one was a recovered onsides kick. That can't be good.

Denver (+3.5) vs MIAMI

How many reasons can I come up with in two minutes? Waiting for 12:07am to hit. And GO!
1) Miami is awful at home. 2) They are easily the front-runners for Andrew Luck and need him the most. 3) Their quarterback is Matt Moore, who might double as the Tampa Bay Rays Matt Moore. 4) Reggie Bush will probably spend the first half recording another Pizza Hut commercial. 5) Tim Tebow  >  Kyle Orton. 6) Denver's defense isn't as bad as you think. 7) Tony Sparano vs John Fox (scratch that) 7) TIME!
Not bad. As far as point six goes, they've given up 49 to Green Bay and 29 to San Diego. I also missed point 8) The Broncos are coming off a bye. And have had two weeks to prepare for point 3.

Houston vs TENNESSEE (-3.5)

I know it's been beaten to death, but "Where have we seen this Houston thing before?" You know, where they start awesome and then stagger the rest of the way. Oh, that's right, both of the last two seasons. Well, it's happening before our eyes in 2011 and it's just going to be worse with Andre Johnson missing time and Mario Williams missing a lot more.
Meanwhile, Tennessee is good. I wouldn't say great, but their offense is borderline dangerous (Chris Johnson is about to get it going, possibly this week), Matt Hasselbeck has been really good (he's third in Total Quarterback Rating behind only Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady) and their defense is top 12 in both rushing and passing defense.

San Diego vs NY JETS (+1.5)

If I had to pick one game I don't feel good about, it'd be this one. The Chargers have had two weeks to get ready, the Jets have been underwhelming (Did you see what their offense did against the Dolphins? You did if you weren't watching the game.), and it isn't September, so San Diego is probably good by now.
But I still believe in Rex Ryan. Especially Rex Ryan versus Norv Turner.
Oh, and I also believe in Darrell Revis.

Washington (+2.5) vs CAROLINA

I have no idea on this, but by Week 7, when was the last time a team with a winning record was an underdog against a team 1-5 or worse?
Well, this is the case here. And until normal, Rex Grossman-like circumstances, I'd probably take the Panthers. But Washington's defense is really good and Cam Newton is really prone to throwing the ball to players on the other team (tied with, who else, Grossman, for the NFL lead with nine interceptions).
Meanwhile, some people (maybe just me, who knows?) thought John Beck would start the season as the Skins' number one QB. Well, it's about six weeks late, but he's gonna get his chance. He can't be worse than Rex, right? Right?

Kansas City vs OAKLAND (-3.5)

I know Oakland's options at QB aren't that great. Or good. Or mediocre. But it doesn't matter because this game will boil down to Darren McFadden against the KC run defense (21st in the NFL). Plus, it's a home game within the division (Oakland was 6-0 vs the AFC West in 2010, even though KC won the division) and the Raiders are still playing for Al Davis. And he's looking up at them, smiling. (That's a joke, super-sensitive people).

Pittsburgh (-3.5) vs ARIZONA

Sigh...I really hope the Steelers barely beating Jacksonville at home last week was a fluke, but they actually might not be that good. Fortunately, the Cardinals are terrible. The matchup to watch is the Steelers 1st-ranked pass defense against Kevin Kolb. Should be a pretty good showing if there's another Kevin Kolb who's actually good at being an NFL quarterback. Or if Kevin Kolb and Tom Brady switched names.
The biggest thing to worry about here is that Pittsburgh goes to face the real Tom Brady next week, which the Steelers are probably looking forward to already. The good news is that, once again, the Cardinals are terrible.

St. Louis (+12.5) vs DALLAS

I haven't quite figured out how the Rams are going to move the ball in this one. They're in the bottom third of the league in rush and pass offense, while Dallas is number one in rushing defense and in the top half of the league in passing defense. Also, Rob Ryan loves to blitz and Sam Bradford is still young and prone to mistakes. So... maybe special teams? Maybe Tony Romo will screw up a few times? I don't know. I just know I can't bet on the Cowboys to blow anyone out. Their five games combined have been decided by 16 points total. And while this is their first game against a really bad team (Jets, 49ers, Redskins, Lions and Patriots previously), we'll see how they handle a Rams team which (common theme) has had two weeks to prepare.
P.S. Last week, I mentioned four bye week teams and went 3-1 in those games (which woulda been 4-0 if Cleveland could have driven for a late TD to cover the 5.5-point spread, which I lost by 1.5 points). So there.

Green Bay (-8.5) vs MINNESOTA

Rivalry game, Christian Ponder, blah blah. Aaron Rodgers vs. a very bad Vikings secondary. Sold.

Indianapolis (+13.5) vs NEW ORLEANS

The Saints aren't that good, people. Really. I promise. Yeah, I know the Colts aren't either, but that's too many points unless you're 100 percent sure a team will cover, which A) I'm not and B) I don't think they will.
I may have done this last week, but if I did, it's worth it to do again. Here's what New Orleans has done this season: loss by eight at Green Bay, win by 17 vs Chicago, win by seven vs Houston, win by 13 at Jacksonville, win by three at Carolina, loss by six at Tampa Bay.
And I know the Colts suck, but throw out that Kerry Collins-led blowout by the Texans and here's what they've done: loss by eight vs Cleveland, loss by three vs Pittsburgh, loss by seven at Tampa Bay, loss by four vs KC, loss by 10 at Cincy. This is my 10+ point spread Lock of the Week!! (Sorry, Rams).

Baltimore (-7.5) vs Jacksonville

I want a mulligan on my Pitt-Jax pick from last week. My "Stone Cold Lock of the Week," as I erroneously put it. I didn't realize Pittsburgh was as bad as they are.
Meanwhile, Baltimore isn't. They're CLEARLY the third-best team in the NFL behind Green Bay and New England. And this week, they get Blaine Gabbert.
There are 32 starting quarterbacks (technically, shut up) in the NFL. Gabbert, by Total Quarterback Rating, is 32nd. Ouch.
If the Ravens and their 3rd-ranked rushing defense can contain Maurice Jones-Drew, they'll need Joe Flacco, Ray Rice and Co. to put up around eight points. Maybe a bit more. I've got Baltimore 37, Jacksonville 7 and I have this game as my (take a deep breath) Stone Cold Lock of the Week.