Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Devils' Advocate?

When this man's contract is up, I'll be 42 years old. I might be married with four kids. I might be writing something like this for a newspaper in Calgary. I might be dead. Who knows? The one thing I do know is that a SEVENTEEN-YEAR CONTRACT IS CRAZY!

Nevertheless, Ilya Kovalchuk secured his future by signing that aforementioned contract, worth approximately $102 million, to play NHL hockey in New Jersey until 2027.

There's a good chance I spend tomorrow gathering random notes, objects and thoughts and creating a time capsule to look back on when Kovalchuk's deal expires. Because, more than anything right now, I'm curious. I want to be in 2027 for a day to see what's new in the world, in my life and in the NHL. Has cancer been cured? Do we have the first female president in the history of the United States? Have the Cubs still not won a World Series? (Just kidding, we know that's a no. Sorry North Side.)

Who wins in this deal, you ask. There's no arguing a few facts. First, Kovalchuk is one of the top-five skaters in the NHL. Second, super-long-term deals have bombed spectacularly in the NHL in recent years (although Rick DiPietro will be fine once someone finds the person responsible for torturing his voodoo doll). Third, Kovalchuk hasn't exactly been a winner in his NHL career. Fourth, and perhaps most importantly, Kovalchuk rejected several other deals (many one-year offers, but at least one 15-year contract from the talent-laden Los Angeles Kings) to remain a Devil. Sure, New Jersey's 2009-10 season lasted one fewer game than LA's did, but the Devils recent history is storied, while the Kings had just their third 40+ win season since 1991.

That last point is crucial. Despite falling short of expectations in last year's playoffs, Kovalchuk must expect long-lasting success in New Jersey, starting with his own play. While the Kings didn't offer as much annual money as the Devils, his one-year offers were lucrative enough to lure him away from Newark, yet he stayed. Also, there's no arguing the talent around him, with stud Zach Parise and the winningest goaltender of all time, Martin Brodeur alongside. But his statement signing could lure free agents now and in the future to New Jersey and potentially create a powerhouse in the relatively weak Eastern Conference.

What remains to be seen could change the landscape of sports as we know it, especially the NHL. Let me lay forth two quick hypotheticals: Kovalchuk averages 90 points a season over the next 15 years while remaining relatively healthy and leads New Jersey to five Stanley Cups. At what point do teams begin thinking, "Hey, this is one of the sport's premier players. He's proven it for almost a decade and if we can lock him up for the rest of his career, we gotta do it." It wasn't long ago Alex Rodriguez signed a similarly staggering 10-year, $252 million contract with the Texas Rangers. If they could have put a team around him, who knows whether he would be donning pinstripes today. The bastard.

Hypothetical two: Kovalchuk bombs, averaging just 20 goals and 45 points over his first five injury-plagued seasons, winning just one playoff series, before he bounces around from team to team like Kenny Lofton (I don't know enough about hockey to make a more appropriate analogy) for a decade after that. With the growing track record of long-term deals not producing, do teams become more hesitant giving out anything more than four or five years like they're the Boston Red Sox?

The answer to the 243 questions I've laid forth: I don't know. The only thing I do know is that I would really, really like to spend a day in 2027 to see how this turned out. Guess I'll just have to wait SEVENTEEN YEARS TO FIND OUT! Sigh...

No comments: