Monday, April 6, 2009

Rain, rain, go away

In about 8 minutes, I was supposed to be watching Josh Beckett and the Boston Red Sox crush James Shields and the Tampa Bay Rays (copyright: WHL) in the season opener for both teams. Instead, Mother Nature had other ideas and I'm stuck here watching the Mets and Reds, waiting for tomorrow.

But I guess this gives me an extra day to preview the Sox (as if I haven't already) as well as the entire American League. After all, ESPN's initial Power Rankings had Boston as MLB's top dog, just a spot ahead of the Rays and two spots ahead of some century-long rivals from New York. But are the Sox really the team to beat in their own division, much less the entire league?

Sox Rotation:

Last season, only the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (LAAA, 47) and, surprise, the Toronto Blue Jays (51), had more wins from their top three pitchers than Boston did (46) of American League teams. With Matsuzaka entering his third season in the States, Lester looking to make some noise in the Cy Young race and Beckett being healthy all spring for the first time since he was 7, the rotation should be even better. Whether that number of wins goes up or down in 2009 hinges on the run production of a lineup which has more boom or bust potential than Seth Rogen's next movie.

Rotation to watch out for:

Now I understand why Bill Simmons is drinking the Kansas City Royals Kool-Aid. Four Royals starters combined for45 wins last season and the fifth (Luke Hochevar) is expected by some to have his breakout year. With an improved lineup which includes former Sox centerfielder Covelli Crisp and minor league stud Ryan Shealy, this rotation could lead the Royals to the top of a fairly weak AL Central.

Sox Lineup:

Like I said earlier, who knows with this lineup? Boston could lead the league in runs and I wouldn't be surprised. They could be in the bottom half of the majors and I wouldn't be surprised. In my eyes, it's simple: Jacoby Ellsbury will make or break the batting order. He needs to get on base, utilize his speed and get pitchers thinking while he's on the basepaths. With the reigning AL MVP Dustin Pedroia, Big Papi and Kevin Youkilis behind him, he will score more often than not when he reaches.

As with other teams, obviously, health is also a big issue. David Ortiz and Mike Lowell are coming back from injuries, Julio Lugo is already shelved, Rocco Baldelli is always a mystery and if anyone else goes down (if I had to bet on the first being either J.D. Drew or everybody else on the roster, I'd probably take J.D.), the Sox might be in trouble.

Lineup to watch out for:

If I asked you to name one of the top four hitters for the A's last season of players who played in 100 games, could you? (Answers: Ryan Sweeney, Kurt Suzuki, Rajai Davis and Emil Brown.) Heck, if I asked you to name three Oakland hitters, could you? It'd be tough, I know.
Their collective .242 batting average from 2008 is gone, however, thanks to a plethora of offseason acquisitions. New faces include Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera and NOMAH! And they still have Eric Chavez, who, when healthy, is a 20-homer guy. Like Boston, if the A's get anything from their table setters, they could be a sleeper in the AL.

Sox Bullpen:

I absolutely love the way the pen is setting up in Beantown. In the Crisp trade, Boston acquired setup man Ramon Ramirez, who can bring heat. They took a low-risk flyer on Takashi Saito, who is getting old, but in his three years in the majors, has compiled a 1.95 ERA and nearly a 5:1 K:BB ratio. Manny Delcarmen is due (I keep telling myself this...though he was fairly solid last season), Hideki Okajima is very reliable, Javier Lopez is OK in the right situations (which means Terry Francona will probably use him against lefties, which shelled him in 2008), Mike Timlin is gone and Paps will be Paps. Also lurking are Justin Masterson (ONIONS!) and Junichi Tazawa, who might not make an immediate impact, but will be heard from by season's end. Boston's bullpen, on paper, is the best in the bigs and if they perform like they should, will carry the team in the late innings.

Bullpen to watch out for:

The Detroit Tigers have a rotation which many teams would love to have, with more young arms than a daycare. Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Verlander, Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis, Rick Porcello, Armando Galarraga and Edwin Jackson all could record 15 wins and a sub-4.00 ERA this season if given the chance. But those who were given a chance, aside from Jackson in Tampa, struggled, while Porcello hasn't proven himself yet. This means that the bullpen must be a strength if the Tigers want to compete in the AL Central.

During the offseason, Detroit nabbed Brandon Lyon from Arizona, who has a successful campaign in 2008, but struggled as a member of the Red Sox the last time he pitched for an AL club. Lyon definitely has the stuff to be one of the league's best closers, but whether he can succeed against better hitting remains to be seen. The Tigers also will benefit from the return of Joel Zumaya, who was injured for the better part of last year, the signing of Juan Rincon and the lively arms of Freddy Dolsi and Fernando Rodney. Finally, they have Zach Miner back there as well, who struggled with control at times, but still compiled a respectable 4.27 ERA last season.

AL Predictions:

AL East:

1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees (Wild Card)
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles

AL Central:

1. Minnesota Twins
2. Kansas City Royals
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Detroit Tigers

AL West:

1. Oakland A's
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners

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