The Sports Guy and Jack-O

I just finished a podcast that The Sports Guy (Bill Simmons/die-hard BoSox fan) had with his friend Jack-O (die-hard Yankees fan) about the Yankees and Red Sox, and I have five questions about the upcoming season, complete with my own answers:

1) How is it possible for a true Red Sox fan to be friends with a true Yankees fan?

Answer: Embodied perfectly in the relationship Simmons has with Jack-O, the only real reason to be friends with a Yankees fan is to make fun of that person every opportunity you get. The media has called Alex Rodriguez "A-Roid" "A-Fraud" "Pay-Rod" and plenty of other names over the past year or so, but Simmons' nickname for him is better, and more accurate, than the other two: Mr. May. The Yankees have also won as many World Series since the new millenium as the Milwaukee Brewers. And the Pittsburgh Pirates. And the Spokane Indians. It's great.

2) Are the Yankees primed for a Ewing Theory season with A-Rod already shelved?

Answer: No. Not only, according to Simmons and Jack-O, does the Rodriguez injury even qualify for the Ewing Theory, since nobody is writing off the Yanks because their best player is hurt, but the Ewing Theory can't be applied as much in baseball as it can basketball or football. Players in basketball and football all (or for the most part) have the same goal...score. So when their star goes down, they step up their play. But in baseball, A-Rod going down can only have a Ewing Theory impact on offense. Don't count on Edwar Ramirez and A.J. Burnett filling the void left by #13.

3) Jason Bay: Yea or Nay?

Answer: Yea. I love Jason Bay, no secret there. Simmons is not buying him, partly based on his performance late in the ALCS against Tampa and partly based on the odds of him hitting 20 fewer home runs than the guy he replaced, Manny something. It was said last season and it will be said again this season. Jason Bay is not Manny Ramirez. We get it. But Bay is definitely capable of a .310-25-100 season and from the 5 or 6 slot in the lineup, that's definitely not bad. Hopefully, he's learned to lay off the slider...it's his prime weakness at the plate, especially against righties.

4) Whose rotation is better, Sox or Yanks?

Answer: Slight edge to the Sox. Jack-O is as stoked as I am about C.C. Sabathia, but for much different reasons. He thinks C.C. will be awesome. I think his ERA will be more inflated than his belt line. Our ace is...uh...well, I don't know. For the purposes of the discussion, I'll say Daisuke Matsuzaka. Dice-K is good for six, tops. Sure, his ERA was great, but he walks just about everybody. And I don't trust him against the Evil Empire. Chien-Ming Wang and Jon Lester is a push, since both are realistically, each team's best pitcher. When the stats come out at the end of the season, both will have close to 20 wins and a low 3 ERA...that's just the way it is. A.J. Burnett and Josh Beckett are kinda the same way, except instead of 20, it will be 15 for J.B. and 10 for A.J.B. (he's DL-bound by June) and both will have ERAs around 4. Since Beckett should be on the DL two or three fewer times than Burnett, the edge goes to him. In the 4 slot, Andy Pettitte and Tim Wakefield is a push as well, but obviously, the stats continue to get worse. Ten-ish wins for each and ERAs just over 5. Finally, Joba Chamberlain has an edge over (insert Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Justin Masterson, Clay Buchholz or Michael Bowden here). I loathe this guy, but he's good. How he holds up as a starter for an entire season remains to be seen, but the grab bag in the five slot is a question mark already in Boston. I'm pulling for Masterson, who would be solid more often than not, but he's the only one of that group I'm confident in saying that about. Simmons is ogling over Daniel Bard, who has been lights out in spring training, and says Bard will make an appearance for the Sox by the end of the 2009 season. He could turn out to be this season's Masterson, but with the plethora of talent in the bullpen, 2010 seems like a more realistic time for Bard to make an impact with the big club.

5) Who are the team's sleepers?

Answer: Simmons loves Rocco Baldelli because of his concern about Jacoby Ellsbury's progression and J.D. Drew's A.J. Burnett impression. Personally, I'm hopping back on the Julio Lugo bandwagon. The guy found out he was lactose intolerant during last season (no, that's not a joke) and has had a great spring thus far. I'm a huge Jed Lowrie fan, but I'm excited to see Lugo get another shot...remember, he was a .300 hitter with the Rays a few seasons ago. Unless he's got the same problem with knowing his own age as Danny Almonte, Lugo should be a quality player for a few more seasons.