Monday, March 9, 2009

The Streak (3/9) and the WCC Championship Game

My overall record is 76-63-2. You'd think by now that I would have reached a W5 more than one time, especially since I've lost three straight five times.

Self-pity aside, I have to bounce back from my L1 and hopefully AGF Aarhus defeats Vejle outright to get the ball rolling.

Later on, I like Charlotte to defeat Richmond in the A10 Conference Women's Championship. The game is in Charlotte, so all other things considered equal, I like the home-court advantage.

For my one other pick on the day, I'm going with Siena to defeat Niagara. The Purple Eagles fought hard to defeat an inferior Rider team in double overtime last night. With the game in Siena's backyard and Siena actually being a better team, it seems like the easy choice.

Unfortunately, the Gonzaga-St. Mary's game isn't on the board. I find that strange for so many reasons (among them that Patty Mills is a complete wild card after his first game back and that Gonzaga played better last night than they had in weeks).

The Zags were ridiculous last night. The game was within five or six late in the first half, but there was still the sense that Santa Clara was way behind. And by halftime, they were.

Everyone was on their game, except for maybe Heytvelt, who didn't have too many opportunities. However, he, along with Will Foster, completely shut down the WCC Player of the Year, John Bryant, who torched San Diego for 27 rebounds the night before.

Downs, Bouldin and even Pargo were lights out shooting the ball. And they didn't even compare to Austin Daye, who went for 28 in his first good game in months.

A couple hours later, Mills made his return for St. Mary's and helped the Gaels to a 71-61 victory over the Portland Pilots. Mills definitely wasn't himself in his first game back, shooting the ball especially poorly, but his presence on both ends of the court clearly made a difference. Now, with one game under his belt, he looks to give St. Mary's an automatic berth into the Dance.

I see it unfolding much like the Zags don't want it to. I think the Gaels are going to come right out and punch Gonzaga in the mouth early. I can see them up something like 18-8 or whatever. The Bulldogs will rally and perhaps tie or take a lead late in the first half, but St. Mary's will go into the break with a four or five point lead. The second half will be a lot of back-and-forth action, but Gonzaga won't be able to get over the hump and St. Mary's wins 74-68.

Make no mistake, I'll be rooting for Gonzaga just as much as always, but I think the third time is the charm with this game. And I'm convinced St. Marys will want it more, because they definitely need it more.

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